By Jim Stanford on January 29, 2007
Number of days since last significant snowfall: 18.
Number of nights during this span with low temperature of zero degrees or colder: 18.
Number of nights with low temperature of -10 degrees or colder: 9.
Forecasted low temperature for tonight: -11.
Days until first day of spring: 51.
While it seems like this has been the worst drought in recent memory, it isn’t.
Through January, this year’s snowpack ranks as the third-lowest total in the 40-year history of Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, trailing only 2001 and 1977, the infamous “winter it didn’t snow.” But relief may be on the way.
Today the snowpack at mid-mountain (8,180 feet) measures 45 inches, according to the Bridger-Teton Avalanche Forecast Center. At the end of January 2001, there were just 41 inches at mid-mountain. In 1977, the year people basically gave up on skiing and went to Mexico, there were 24 inches.
By comparison, the snowpack measured 123 inches at mid-mountain in January 1997 and 103 inches last year. The historical average is 71 inches.
While total snowfall for this month is 33 inches, nearly a third of normal, January 2001 saw just 19 inches fall at the upper elevations.
For those who want to pore over the stats, the BTNF site has a “historical snowpack” feature that lets users compile a chart for any day in resort history, dating to 1979. The 1977 total was obtained from avalanche forecaster Larry Livingood.
Here’s the good news, part I:
The weather pattern may be changing, but not before the end of the week. Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey sees some signs that the high-pressure ridge off the coast of California, which has forced the jet stream to split around us, may start to shift. A couple of big storms off the Alaska coast may break down the ridge and start bringing some snow to the Tetons, Woody says.
The good news, part II:
While there hasn’t been a big dump of snow in nearly three weeks, the skiing has remained remarkably good. The “soulful” tele skiers pictured in this post, for instance, found about 3,000 feet of silky-smooth hoar frost powder in the shaded slopes of the Tetons on Sunday.
Last week’s warming at higher elevations, followed by more cold, has helped stabilize the snowpack, allowing skiers and riders to explore places they usually would avoid during more dangerous storm cycles. Rando Steve and friends, for instance, skied powder on the Grand Teton on Jan. 25. If you haven’t seen the photos, check ‘em out. Brad Boner of the JH Daily got a shot of the tracks the following day.
All this brutally cold weather has kept what snow we do have from melting. Snowpack in the Snake River basin is 73 percent of average, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service.
The good news, part III:
Resorts elsewhere in the Rockies are faring even worse. Steamboat in Colorado has 40 inches at its summit, while Utah’s Snowbird has 50 inches, paltry by Wasatch standards.
Where’s the snow? Whistler, in B.C., Canada, with a 106-inch base.
The bad news about the good news:
If and when the weather does change, and snow starts falling, expect the avalanche danger to skyrocket. The deep freeze has resulted in a thick layer of surface hoar crystals, which are prone to collapse and provide a good sliding surface under the weight of new snow.
“I would hate to see us get a foot of snow out of the storm, and peop rush out there to get fresh tracks,” Woodmencey says.
In general, Woody says, a particularly dry month or two usually are followed by a couple of wetter months. And December’s snowfall totals were a little light, so we could be due for a strong rebound. January 1994 was pretty dry, but the snowpack doubled in depth by the end of February.
“I’m not quite giving up yet,” says Woody, who posts a forecast weekdays at MountainWeather.com. “I’m hopefully optimistic.”
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Other winters with severe droughts: 1991-92, when hardly any snow fell after January, and by the end of the season skiers were forced to download on the aerial tram from Tower Three; and 1980-81, when Jackson Hole closed March 21 because of too little snow.
All of these look bountiful compared to 1976-77. In the Feb. 9, 1977, Jackson Hole News, managers at Jackson Lake Dam proclaimed that winter the driest period on record, based on 60 years of precipitation data. “The winter of ’77 will certainly be one we’ll be telling our grandchildren about,” the News reported. “That was the year it didn’t snow — or rain — or hail — or sleet.”
With no snowmaking at the time, Snow King did not open until after New Year’s, and the Jackson Hole Ski Area finally opened its Teewinot chair Jan. 6. Apres Vous opened Jan. 9, and Casper opened Jan. 22. Rendezvous Bowl opened Feb. 4 but had to be closed Feb. 24 due to a lack of snow. The bowl did reopen the next day.
Wilson resident A.J. DeRosa spent that bleak season working as a ski patroller at Snow King. Among DeRosa’s duties were making sure there was plenty of straw at the base of the old wooden chairlift and shoveling powder at the summit. Skiers shuffled over the straw as they loaded the chair, and DeRosa sent loads of snow down to the base in cardboard boxes.
In February, DeRosa decided to go to Argentina. “After destroying my third pair of skis, I said, ‘Fuck skiing, I’m going fishing,’” he recalls.
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It may be a little early to buy a ticket to Argentina this year, but it’s never too soon to start looking ahead to warm spring getaways. Along those lines, the New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival announced its lineup last week. No one heart-stopping among the headliners (Rod Stewart, Steely Dan, ZZ Top, Allman Brothers, Norah Jones), but the closing set by NOLA native Harry Connick Jr. should be a highlight.
As anyone who has ever been to the fest can attest, it doesn’t matter who is playing on a given year. The stage is always set for more music and more fun than a person possibly can handle in a given week or two. There’s a reason no one sleeps.
In addition to the performers at the Fairgrounds, every club in the city hosts music throughout the festival, some all night long. Schedules for these shows can be found at sites like Jazzfest Grids and Tipitinas.com.
Posted under avalanches, skiing, sports, weather
