first taste of winter
Yesterday’s dusting of snow in the mountains was fitting, following on the heels of the first official day of autumn.
Naturally, the appearance of the white stuff leads to speculation about the coming winter. Will we be skiing in Jackson Hole by Halloween? Or will the season be another disappointment like last year, plagued by rain and perma-thaw?
The long-range forecasts don’t look good, unless you embrace the warming of the West.
All of the prognosticators, scientific and superstitious, are calling for above-average temperatures in the mountain states — not exactly going out on a limb, given recent warming trends.
The Farmers’ Almanac, released in late August, is calling for a mild and dry winter in the West, but cold and snowy in the Northeast. Skiers in Vermont should be sitting pretty.
This is not to be confused with the Old Farmer’s Almanac, which came out last week and also is calling for temperatures slightly above normal and precipitation slightly below normal in the West.
The National Weather Service issued its long-range climate predictions last week, calling for a greater chance of warmer-than-average temperatures in the West and an equal chance of above- or below-normal precipitation.
Lest ye despair, “normal” winter precipitation in Jackson Hole ain’t too shabby, about 300 to 400 inches of snowfall in the mountains.
What can we expect? I’m going to peer into the crystal ball and say 1) there will be enough snow for skiing; 2) we will freeze our asses off at some point this winter; and 3) rain will continue to be a downer after the big snowstorms.
Let’s hope we avoid another brutal January drought that lasts three weeks and tests the limits of sanity.
With a little luck, this first snowstorm will usher in a glorious Indian summer to carry us through October.
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October 10th, 2007 at 1:24 pm
The forecasts are pegging this winter as a mild La Niña pattern. Jim Woodmencey wrote in today’s Planet that “it is somewhat encouraging to know that ‘La Niña’ winters produce a greater majority of above-average snowfall winters in Jackson Hole.”
Let it snow!